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Obama Maintains an Edge in Battleground Polls

In all 12 of the presidential battleground states, Obama maintains leads in polling averages in 9 states and Romney in 3 states. If these polls held on Election Day, President Obama would be reelected with 290 electoral votes and Romney would have 248 electoral votes.

It is difficult to assess how the candidates are performing among Independents in the state polls. Many of the state-level polls do not report data for Independents, have very small sample sizes for their crosstabs, or provide contradictory data. 

For example, in Ohio both Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling released state level data this week. Both had Obama winning the state by 5 points, but Quinnipiac has Romney winning Independents by 6 (49% to 43%) while PPP has Independents evenly split.

Read more in our newest analysis of the numbers: Rage Against the Machine: Independent Registration Soars Since 2008.

Our Bill Schneider reacts to Mitt Romney’s wins in Arizona and Michigan:"Romney won in Michigan because of seniors and wealthy voters. He did not carry anyone else. That’s an establishment vote. No populist appeal whatsoever.
Additionally, Romney has early voting to thank for his victories in AZ / MI. He won those who voted in 2011 and lost those who voted in 2012. Momentum is not on Romney’s side. Perhaps his victories last night will change this. Super Tuesday looms…” Friend him on Facebook and follow him on Twitter @billschneiderdc.

Our Bill Schneider reacts to Mitt Romney’s wins in Arizona and Michigan:

"Romney won in Michigan because of seniors and wealthy voters. He did not carry anyone else. That’s an establishment vote. No populist appeal whatsoever.

Additionally, Romney has early voting to thank for his victories in AZ / MI. He won those who voted in 2011 and lost those who voted in 2012. Momentum is not on Romney’s side. Perhaps his victories last night will change this. Super Tuesday looms…” 

Friend him on Facebook and follow him on Twitter @billschneiderdc.