89 posts tagged democrats
by Catalina Camia, USA Today
The number of voters who are registering themselves as independents has climbed since 2008 when Democrats were at their high point, according to a new analysis from the centrist Democratic group Third Way.
The latest update in Third Way’s annual look at the electorate shows a jump of nearly 11.2% in independent voter registration from 2008 to 2013 in 24 states and the District of Columbia that keep partisan registration statistics.
Democratic registration is down by 1% and .04% for Republicans during that period, Third Way’s analysis showed. The group provided USA TODAY with an early look at its report.
The findings are a sign that voters have become frustrated with the major parties and don’t want to get bogged down by a party label when filling out a registration form.
"People are unwilling to call themselves Democrats or Republicans," said Michelle Diggles, a senior policy analyst with Third Way. "They are turned off by what they see politically in D.C."
By Jon Cowan and Jim Kessler, Third Way
The de Blasio-Warren agenda won’t travel. Colorado is the real political harbinger.
If you talk to leading progressives these days, you’ll be sure to hear this message: The Democratic Party should embrace the economic populism of New York Mayor-elect Bill de Blasio and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Such economic populism, they argue, should be the guiding star for Democrats heading into 2016. Nothing would be more disastrous for Democrats.
While New Yorkers think of their city as the center of the universe, the last time its mayor won a race for governor or senator—let alone president—was 1869. For the past 144 years, what has happened in the Big Apple stayed in the Big Apple. Some liberals believe Sen. Warren would be the Democratic Party’s strongest presidential candidate in 2016. But what works in midnight-blue Massachusetts—a state that has had a Republican senator for a total of 152 weeks since 1979—hasn’t sold on a national level since 1960.
The political problems of liberal populism are bad enough. Worse are the actual policies proposed by left-wing populists. The movement relies on a potent “we can have it all” fantasy that goes something like this: If we force the wealthy to pay higher taxes (there are 300,000 tax filers who earn more than $1 million), close a few corporate tax loopholes, and break up some big banks then—presto!—we can pay for, and even expand, existing entitlements. Meanwhile, we can invest more deeply in K-12 education, infrastructure, health research, clean energy and more.
by Michelle Diggles,Third Way
The narrative of 2013 thus far has been the victory of pragmatism over dogmatic adherence to ideology, moderation and bipartisan compromise over extreme partisanship. Those on the Left may be tempted to view their victory in Virginia as a demographic inevitability, running up numbers with voters who are all but guaranteed to be Democrats for life. But buried within the polling are warning signs for Democrats and opportunities for Republicans.
Governor-elect Terry McAuliffe won the 18-29 year-old vote by a bare margin of 45% to 40%. A surprising 15% voted for Robert Sarvis, which marked the highest level of support the libertarian candidate received from any age group. By contrast, President Obama won 60% of younger voters in 2008 and 2012 in Virginia. But last night’s election proves that President Obama’s large margins of victory among younger voters cannot be assumed to simply transfer to other Democratic candidates. McAuliffe may have secured a plurality of the youth vote, but he was down 15 points from President Obama’s margin.
In his September 2013 Inside Politics Newsletter Bill argues that popular support is fueling rebellion within both political parties.
1. Millennials are liberal.
Looking at 15 years of Pew data, on average only 28% of Millennials identified as liberal. An identical 28% identified as conservative. In fact, moderates led the way at 38%. As compared to the general population and other generations, Millennials do trend left. Just not overwhelmingly.
There is also growing evidence that younger Millennials increasingly identify as moderates:
- An annual survey of incoming college freshman, with over 190,000 respondents, found that the number of incoming students describing their ideology as “middle-of-the-road” (as opposed to liberal or conservative) rose by 4 points between 2008 and 2012—from 43.3% to 47.5%.
- Another 2013 survey of 18–29 year olds found that nearly half (49%) identified as a moderate.
That’s a far cry from proof that Millennials are a reflexively liberal group.
The last two presidential elections have left Republicans reeling and Democrats crowing. But can Democrats rely on demographic changes to consistently deliver them to power in future elections? Are Hispanics, Asians, and Millennials brand-loyal to the Democratic Party? Has an enduring liberal majority finally arrived?
Obscured within analyses of 2012 is a set of illusions about voters—illusions that could be dangerous and, if Democrats embrace them, could threaten the Party’s electoral prospects in the future.
Third Way’s Matt Bennett in The New York Times.
"It’s Time for a National Commission on Social Security" by David Brown, Gabe Horwitz, Jim Kessler, and David Kendall
Here’s the good news: the percentage of Americans who believe the seriousness of global warming is “generally underestimated” has been going up. It’s now one in three. It had gone down to one in four in 2010, the year of the Tea Party. Here’s the bad news: more people think the problem is “generally exaggerated” (41% in the April Gallup poll).
There’s still a lot of skepticism out there, and it’s mostly among Republicans. Over the past 15 years, more and more Republicans have come to believe that climate change is exaggerated. Only 34% of Republicans felt that way in 1998. Now 64% do.
The gap between the parties on global warming has widened considerably. In 1998, the difference was 11 points. It grew to 32-38% in the early 2000s. Since President Obama took office in 2009, the difference has gotten huge. Republicans are 41-47 points more likely than Democrats to believe the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated.
By Bill Schneider
We are witnessing the slow death of public opinion in this country. It’s being displaced by party opinion.
These days, more and more Americans are inclined to judge issues from a partisan viewpoint. In March, according to a Pew Research Center survey, twice as many Republicans (53 percent) as Democrats (27 percent) said the economy was poor. Yet, from everything we know, Republicans are not suffering more economic deprivation than Democrats.
Elections today are less and less about persuasion and more and more about mobilization: You rally your supporters in order to beat back your opponents. Republicans did that in 2004, when President George W. Bush got re-elected with 51 percent of the vote. Democrats did that in 2012, when President Barack Obama got re-elected with 51 percent of the vote.
Republicans today are all fired up over the controversies involving the Internal Revenue Service, the State Department and the Justice Department. They see Watergate.
By Bill Schneider
Old vaudeville joke:
Man goes to the doctor. Says he has a pain in his arm.
“Have you ever had this problem before?” the doctor says.
“Yes,” the man answers.
“Well, you got it again.”
Now look at the Republicans’ immigration problem. Have they had this problem before? Yes. Well, they’ve got it again.