This week the Supreme Court will take up two historic cases dealing with marriage for gay couples. We made a cheat sheet breaking down what you need to know about each of the cases, including a easy-to-read charts that will help clarify the many possible outcomes as the Justices ponder their decisions.
The quasi-triumphant coverage of this week’s Supreme Court oral arguments in cases related to marriage equality is making me uncomfortable. Not because I don’t want the high court to rule in a way that upholds the dignity and equal protection of same-sex couples who are or want to be married, but because I don’t think lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) Americans fully appreciate just how tenuous things are on the court right now. The undeniable forward momentum propelling today’s hopeful enthusiasm could be the very thing that keeps the Supreme Court from going big.
The arguments in Hollingsworth v. Perry (a.k.a. the Prop 8 case) and United States v. Windsor (a.k.a. the DOMA case) mark the high point of the startling transformation in public opinion in a relatively short period of time. When President Obama took office in 2009, same-sex marriage was legal only in Massachusetts (where it was approved in 2004) and Connecticut (2008). Today, marriage equality reigns in nine states and the District of Columbia. Three of them (Maine, Maryland and Washington state) said, “I do,” last November.
This is happening in tandem with an incredible swing in public opinion. In 2003, 55 percent of the American people were against same-sex marriage in the Washington Post-ABC News poll taken at the time. Last week, a new Post-ABC News poll revealed 58 percent support for marriage equality. That’s a complete flip in public opinion and marks the highest level of support ever.
All of this is fantastic. And it could lead the Supreme Court to decide to take a back seat to a political process moving in the right direction.
Marriage in the Supreme Court: What Could Happen? (Hollingsworth v. Perry)
The Supreme Court has announced that it will hear two cases this term involving marriage for gay couples. This chart explains some possible outcomes for the case that challenges California’s Proposition 8: Hollingsworth v. Perry. The Court will likely hear oral arguments next week and will render a decision by the end of June 2013.
Marriage in the Supreme Court: What Could Happen? (United States v. Windsor)
The Supreme Court has announced that it will hear two cases this term involving marriage for gay couples. This chart explains some possible outcomes for the case that challenges the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA): United States v. Windsor. The Court will likely hear oral arguments next week and will render a decision by the end of June 2013.
The Supreme Court announced Friday that it will take on two cases involving same-sex marriage. This is definitely cause for celebration. Gay couples looking for the respect and stability that comes with marriage might finally get equal protection under the law. But as Adam Nagourney of the New York Times reported yesterday, “[A]mid the celebration, there were signs of concern over how the Supreme Court might rule.”
Don Romesburg, an associate professor of women and gender studies at California’s Sonoma State University who is gay, told Nagourney, “It is frightening to have our basic rights as citizens in the hands of just nine people, when four or five of them are deeply ambivalent, at best, about our very existence.”
Yet, over the years, we have seen the overall views of the American people move at breakneck speed from “deeply ambivalent” to growing acceptance.
The Pew Forum on Religion and Public life released a series of charts last month that bear this out.
Attitudes are changing. Between 2001 and 2012, support for same-sex marriage rose 13 percent, from 35 percent to 48 percent. The number of those opposed dropped 14 percent, from 57 percent in 2001 to 43 percent in 2012.
On “This Week With George Stephanopoulos” yesterday, George Will said, “Quite literally, the opposition to gay marriage is dying.” That’s because those most opposed to marriage equality are older Americans, the “Silent Generation.” But as you see in the chart above, support for same-sex marriage has been increasing among every generation of Americans. The Millennials and Generation X’ers are leading the way. But a report from the centrist think tank Third Way convincingly challenges the conventional wisdom espoused by Will.
“One often-cited reason for the change is that younger voters with more accepting views are replacing older voters in the population,” Lanae Erickson of Third Way and Gregory B. Lewis of Georgia State University write. “The more important reason, though, is that Americans in every demographic, political, and religious group across the country are changing their minds on this issue.”
Now we wait to see who among the justices of the Supreme Court will change their minds on this issue to give gay and lesbian couples the recognition and protection their families deserve under the Constitution.
The first step in cobbling together the Democratic Party platform begins this weekend when the 15-member drafting committee meets this weekend. Plenty of issues will be discussed, but none promises to be more controversial than whether to make support for marriage equality an official Democratic Party policy position. What is noteworthy about the Minneapolis meeting is that it will mark the beginning of a series of events that could lead to the end of the so-called Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA).
According to a report by Third Way, the centrist think tank, there are “six imminent marriage moments” between now and June 2013. And each moment would give wavering politicians another opportunity to evolve on an issue President Obama completed in May.
“…we won’t have anywhere near enough doctors to care for the expanded volume of patients that Obamacare will create.” -Marc Seigel, National Review, 03/30/2012
The new law will give more Americans coverage that will help them afford care, and in turn, there will be more demand for services such as primary care, which is already in short supply. Congress anticipated this problem, however, and increased reimbursement and funding for primary care doctors and other health professionals including physician assistants and nurses. President Obama’s administration recently announced an additional $250 million to boost the supply of primary care providers.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Obamacare contains an “abortion surcharge and a secrecy clause” that forces “pro-life Americans … to pay for other people’s abortions.” -Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), 03/15/2012
Actually, the health insurance reform legislation maintains the current law of no federal funding for abortions, except in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the woman is endangered. A federal judge recently wrote “the express language of the [Affordable Care Act] does not provide for taxpayer funded abortion. That is a fact and it is clear on its face.”
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
The health care law has caused health insurance premiums to increase for families struggling to make ends meet. -Rep. Nan Hayworth (R-NY), 06/28/2012
Actually, the new health care law lowers administrative costs for employers and employees and increases choice and competition in health insurance. A family of four will save as much as $2,300 on their premiums in 2014 compared to what they would have paid without reform, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Premiums for the same plan will be up to 2 percent lower for small businesses and 3 percent lower for large businesses.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
The president specifically promised the American people that ‘Obamacare’ would not cover those who are here illegally. He misled all of us. -Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), 08/15/2011
Actually, the health care law goes out of its way to prevent benefits from going to illegal immigrants. It continues the current ban on coverage for illegal immigrants in Medicaid and extends the ban for all new benefits. Moreover, illegal immigrants won’t be able to buy coverage with their own money through the new public program called an insurance exchange.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
This [Obamacare] will be the biggest job-killer ever. -Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL), 03/26/2012
Actually, In contrast to the “significant job losses” projected by a 2011 GOP report, the law’s impact on jobs is likely to be minimal according to the CBO. The Republican report fails to mention that in many cases workers may be choosing to exit the labor market voluntarily. With new options to qualify for Medicaid or subsidized coverage, the Affordable Care Act allows those working solely for the purpose of keeping their insurance to work less or retire. Although fines imposed by the employer mandate may reduce the number of low-wage jobs, those cuts will be limited and largely offset by potential job increases in health and insurance industries.
In sum, the new law introduces incentives that will push employment numbers in both directions, but the net effect is hardly a doomsday for jobs.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Obamacare means that for up to 20 million Americans, they will lose the insurancethey currently have, the insurance that they like and they want to keep. -Mitt Romney, 06/28/2012
Actually, Romney’s campaign has cherry-picked the results of a Congressional Budget Office study. CBO’s official position is that 3 to 5 million people will no longer receive coverage through their employer. Instead, they will receive coverage elsewhere such as an insurance exchange where individuals, not employers, pick the coverage they want. The 20 million figure comes from a CBO analysis designed to show the uncertainty of making predictions using a wide range of possibilities, not its actual prediction.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
All of this is fantastic. And it could lead the Supreme Court to decide to take a back seat to a political process moving in the right direction.
