Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states that elect governors in the year following a presidential election. That means both will hold elections for governor in 2013.
Here’s how the two states have voted for governor going back to 1977. There’s a pattern.
Both states have a tradition of electing governors from the party that just lost the White House. In New Jersey, the tradition goes back to 1989. In Virginia, it goes back to 1977.
That’s because the electorate shrinks radically in the off year election. In New Jersey, 3.9 million people voted for President in 2008. In 2009, only 2.4 million voted for governor. In Virginia, the electorate shrank from 3.7 million in 2008 to 2.0 million in 2009. The winning presidential party loses its bonus voters—people who vote once every four years, mostly for the winner.
Will the tradition continue in 2013? Right now, Republican Chris Christie looks like a good bet for re-election in New Jersey. His approval ratings since Hurricane Sandy have been soaring. Virginia will be a tougher test. The Republican candidate is likely to be Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.
Cuccinelli has taken intensely controversial positions on abortion, gun control, climate change, health care reform, immigration and gay rights. If “Cooch” is nominated and loses, it would provide yet more evidence that Republicans are throwing away elections by going too far to the right.
Moderates Hold The Keys: Dems need 60% to win the White House
To win in the Electoral College, a Democratic Presidential candidate needs to dominate among moderate voters. A simple majority isn’t enough— Democrats generally need 60% to declare victory. The only Democrat to nab the White House without hitting that mark was Carter in 1976, but he pulled over 30% of conservatives, a level no Democratic candidate has even approached in the years since.
Moderate Majority: Democrats Win Most Of Their Presidential Votes From The Middle
In every single Presidential election in the modern era, moderates have made up a majority of those voting for the Democratic candidate. The same is not true of Republicans; in fact, since 1984, conservatives have consistently been the largest source of their votes. Win or lose, moderates make up the base of Democratic Presidential coalitions.
Read more about the surge in Independent voter registration and what it could mean for both parties in the upcoming elections in our recent products listed below.
This word cloud comes from a new Third Way focus group report on National Security.
An Ohio man says, “[Obama has been] a pleasant surprise: he has continued to protect the U.S.; he hasn’t wavered and he’s shown that he is not afraid to use military force, which, when he came into office, I didn’t think he was going to do.”
Nearly half of all Obama Independents were not Democratic voters in 2004
President Obama won more swing Independents than Sen. McCain in 2008. McCain Independents were primarily Bush voters in 2004, but Obama Independents are more complex. Nearly half were not Kerry voters in 2004—31% voted for Bush or someone else, and 17% didn’t vote.
Google Politics & Elections gives a breakdown of the questions asked during last night’s Google+ hangout with President Barack Obama.
Obama “sat down” with five voters during the virtual interview, also fielding questions other participants could submit via Google or YouTube. More than 133,000 were submitted, according to the White House.
About 35 percent of questions regarded jobs and the economy, with government reform and foreign policy making up 24 and 20 percent of questions, respectively.
“The entire leadership model of a successful CEO is vastly different from that of a successful president. As political commentator Bill Schneider has pointed out, corporations are designed to be more like benevolent dictatorships; in contrast, the presidency is the leadership of a large and unruly democracy.
This dictatorship vs. democracy distinction matters when it comes to three crucial aspects of leadership.
The first one is consensus…Communication is the second key leadership area in which CEO experience and presidential experience diverge…Finally: control. The presidency, for all of its trappings and genuine levers of power and influence, is a far more constrained position…”
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Third Way President Jon Cowan writes for The Washington Post’s ON LEADERSHIP section on the false premise of a “CEO presidency”
![This word cloud comes from a new Third Way focus group report on National Security.
An Ohio man says, “[Obama has been] a pleasant surprise: he has continued to protect the U.S.; he hasn’t wavered and he’s shown that he is not afraid to use military force, which, when he came into office, I didn’t think he was going to do.”
Want to find out more? Read Third Way’s National Security Focus Group report.](http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m1angkbmrp1r52y3eo1_1280.png)
