24 posts tagged Inside Politics
In this month’s newsletter, Bill looks at the libertarian streak among Republicans and the sudden celebrity of Sen. Rand Paul. Sen. John McCain called Paul and his allies “wacko birds.” Bill calls them hedgehogs.
Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states that elect governors in the year following a presidential election. That means both will hold elections for governor in 2013.
Here’s how the two states have voted for governor going back to 1977. There’s a pattern.
Both states have a tradition of electing governors from the party that just lost the White House. In New Jersey, the tradition goes back to 1989. In Virginia, it goes back to 1977.
That’s because the electorate shrinks radically in the off year election. In New Jersey, 3.9 million people voted for President in 2008. In 2009, only 2.4 million voted for governor. In Virginia, the electorate shrank from 3.7 million in 2008 to 2.0 million in 2009. The winning presidential party loses its bonus voters—people who vote once every four years, mostly for the winner.
Will the tradition continue in 2013? Right now, Republican Chris Christie looks like a good bet for re-election in New Jersey. His approval ratings since Hurricane Sandy have been soaring. Virginia will be a tougher test. The Republican candidate is likely to be Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.
Cuccinelli has taken intensely controversial positions on abortion, gun control, climate change, health care reform, immigration and gay rights. If “Cooch” is nominated and loses, it would provide yet more evidence that Republicans are throwing away elections by going too far to the right.
Read more in the December 2012 Inside Politics Newsletter.
Libertarianism on the Rise
Since 1993, the Gallup poll has been asking Americans whether the government “should promote traditional values” or “not favor any particular set of values.” This year, for the first time ever, a majority of Americans takes the libertarian position: that government should not favor any particular set of values.
Read more in Bill Schneider’s Inside Politics Newsletter - October 2012.
Losing Our Religion
The percentage of Americans who claim no religious affiliation is rising. It’s now one in five. (Among those under 30, it’s one in three.)
This trend coincides with a growing political division between religious and non-religious Americans. Since 1980, religious Americans of all faiths have become more Republican, while non-religious Americans have become more Democratic. It’s a split between the churched and the unchurched.
Read more in Bill Schneider’s Inside Politics Newsletter - October 2012.
Enough Change? Will Unemployment Re-Shape Obama’s 2008 Coalition?
Since President Obama’s first month in office (Feb ‘09) the national unemployment rate has fallen a mere half a percent, from 8.3% to 7.8% (Sep ‘12). But that’s down 2.2% from its peak of 10% in October ‘09. Will that be enough change to fortify the president’s ‘08 election coalition or will voters reject more “hope” in favor of a “job creator”?
This infographic appeared in Bill Schneider’s Inside Politics Newsletter - October 2012. View a larger version here.
In this month’s newsletter, Bill discusses how the vote is coming down to the wire, with a dwindling number of undecided voters in a diminishing number of swing states. This election has become a base-rallying election. The geographic makeup of voters could lead to an outcome eerily similar to the 2000 election. And the winner could find himself without a mandate and unable to get much done.
On p.3, Bill takes a look at some startling changes in Americans’ views on values and politics. For the first time, most Americans do not believe the government should promote traditional values. And the number of Americans who claim “no religion” is up to 2%.
The infographic on p. 4 compares the percentage of the vote Obama won in the 2008 election and the change in unemployment in that state since he took office. Will the vote follow the unemployment rate in those states?
What Makes the Middle Class?
Did you happen to notice how, at both conventions, speaker after speaker talked about how much the party’s candidate would do for “the middle class”? “Unlike President Obama, I will not raise taxes on the middle class,” Mitt Romney said. President Obama promised “a future where we reduce our deficit without sticking it to the middle class.”
What exactly do Americans mean when they call themselves middle class? Just this: neither rich nor poor. That’s why middle class Americans support tax hikes for the rich. If they’re for the rich, I won’t have to pay them. That’s also why middle class Americans are suspicious of government programs to help the poor. If they’re for the poor, they won’t do me any good (and I may have to pay for them).
The Pew poll asked Americans what it takes to be in the middle class today. The top answer by far: a secure job. That’s why jobs are the number one issue this year. Without a secure job, you can’t be in the middle class. Fewer than half of Americans now say you have to own your own home to be in the middle class. The figure was much higher (70%) in 1991, when a similar question was asked. The collapse of home prices since 2006 has had a devastating impact. Owning a home is no longer seen as a guarantee of security.
Read more in Bill Schneider’s Inside Politics Newsletter - September 2012.
Populist Appeal: Obama or Romney?
Only one contender, President Obama, has been expanding his populist appeal during this year’s campaign (against Romney, it isn’t that hard). Two post-convention polls show Obama far ahead of Romney as the candidate more “in touch with the problems facing middle class Americans” and better for “advancing the interests of the middle class.”
Read more in Bill Schneider’s Inside Politics Newsletter - September 2012.
Post-Convention Partisan Bump
2012 is the first election year on record in which neither party got a bounce out of its political convention. According to the Gallup poll, which has been measuring convention bounces for nearly 50 years, President Obama gained a negligible one point in support from the Democratic convention in Charlotte, while Mitt Romney actually went down a point after the Republican convention in Tampa.
Only twice before have conventions produced such a small bounce. John Kerry lost a point after the 2004 Democratic convention and George McGovern got zero bounce from the 1972 Democratic convention, where he delivered his acceptance speech at three o’clock in the morning. Even the chaotic 1968 Democratic convention produced a two-point bounce for Hubert Humphrey.
What happened this year?
The polls have been in a statistical dead heat since February, when it became clear that Romney would be the Republican nominee. Neither candidate has been able to sustain any momentum.
Voters appear to be dug in. It’s all about President Obama, and voters seem to have firm opinions for or against the President. The number of truly undecided voters ranges between 5% and 8% in most polls. One quarter of Americans live in battleground states. Which means the entire campaign is targeted at between 1.5 and 3 million swing voters in battleground states. Some enterprising political consultant probably has their names and addresses. Maybe Mitt Romney will send each of them a check.
Read more in Bill Schneider’s Inside Politics Newsletter - September 2012.
At Third Way’s Inside Politics press breakfast Tuesday morning, three members of the national security advisory committee for the Obama re-election campaign talked with Bill Schneider about the president’s national security record and criticized Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s recent approach to unrest and anti-American violence in North Africa and the Middle East. They also responded to questions from the press regarding U.S. relations with Afghanistan, Iran, and China.
Featuring: former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (2009-2012) Michèle Flournoy, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs (2009-2012) Doug Wilson, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East (2009-2012) Dr. Colin Kahl. Video via CSPAN.
There is an extremely competitive battle for majority in the United States Senate going on across the country. Third Way’s new infographic illustrates the current state of play.
This infographic was featured in the Inside Politics Newsletter - September 2012.
Who Will Be Present at the Polls?
Anti-Obama voters are angry. They will turn out. Obama supporters are disappointed. Getting them to turn out will not be so easy.
Read more in the July 2012 Inside Politics Newsletter.
