Who will win this year’s House toss-up districts? Ask the Independents.
We examined voter registration by party identification in 17 House races where data was available and found:
- Independents make up nearly 30% of the electorate in these swingiest of swing districts.
- Compared to statewide numbers and presidential battlegrounds, toss-up districts boast more Independents.
- In 10 of 17 battleground districts, Democrats must win more Independents than Republicans to claim victory come November.
Read more in our new report, The Battle for the House: Independent Registration in Swing Districts.