2012 is likely to be another close presidential election. Current polls show a dead heat between Obama and Romney. In a close election, every constituency is crucial, but in four swing states, the increase in the Latino voting-age population from 2008 to 2012 is greater than the 2008 margin of victory.
Take Missouri, the only swing state besides his home state of Arizona that voted for McCain in 2008. McCain carried Missouri by about 4,000 votes. Missouri has gained roughly 18,000 new Latinos 18 or older since 2008—enough to reverse the Republicans’ 2008 margin of victory, even if only one third of them vote.
Read more in the May 2012 issue of Third Way’s Inside Politics Newsletter.