July 2012
26 posts
Why gun control isn’t a lost cause
By Matt Bennett and Jonathan Cowan
Dozens of college students murdered in their classrooms; a member of Congress shot at point-blank range; innocents gunned down in a movie theater. Then, in the aftermath of a mass gun crime, the same ritual: national shock and anger, traumatized communities asking how this could happen, followed by . . . nothing. At least, no progress on gun safety.
In a speech to the Urban League on Wednesday, President Obama called for a conversation on youth violence and more steps to keep guns away from criminals and the mentally ill. But everyone, including Obama, has been pretty frank about it: no major new gun laws will result.
However, in Washington, nothing is ever as immovable as it seems.
The key is to understand how intractable problems are ultimately dislodged — not by a single, seismic event, but by a slow shift in politics.
Consider three categories of intractable issues and the forces that have gotten them unstuck:
“Most folks in the parties have made their decision already…and so those independents, a bigger number of them, are now going to be the real key to victory in 2012.”
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-Lanae Hatalsky, Director of the Third Way Social Policy & Politics Program quoted in “Political parties turn to independent voters for edge in November” by Jim Angle via Fox News.
For more about the rise of the Independent voter, read our recent report: Independents Day 2012.
Marriage equality’s year ahead in the spotlight
By Jonathan Capehart via The Washington Post.
The first step in cobbling together the Democratic Party platform begins this weekend when the 15-member drafting committee meets this weekend. Plenty of issues will be discussed, but none promises to be more controversial than whether to make support for marriage equality an official Democratic Party policy position. What is noteworthy about the Minneapolis meeting is that it will mark the beginning of a series of events that could lead to the end of the so-called Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA).
According to a report by Third Way, the centrist think tank, there are “six imminent marriage moments” between now and June 2013. And each moment would give wavering politicians another opportunity to evolve on an issue President Obama completed in May.
“It is mathematically impossible to preserve our current path for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security without a blistering tax increase on the working age middle class at some point in the near future”
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according to a recent analysis by Third Way.
Quote of the Day via U.S. News & World Report’s “Why the Government Will Shrink, Even if Obama Wins Re-Election” by Rick Newman.
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Myth #12: The uninsured will go to jail
If you don’t comply with the individual mandate, what happens to you? You can be subject to five years in prison.
-Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL) 11/18/2009
Actually, the law specifically states that people who don’t pay the penalty cannot be charged criminally. It also forbids liens or levies placed on property for failure to pay.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Myth #11: More Americans will depend on the federal government
A little less than 50 percent of the people in this country depend on some form of government benefit to help provide for them. After Obamacare, it will not be less than 50 percent; it will be 100 percent.
-Rick Santorum, 03/06/2012
Actually, the new law will make coverage affordable to those who cannot afford it now, but the number of people receiving assistance will be well below 100 percent of the population. According to Politi-Fact.com about 60 percent of the population will be receiving some form of government assistance. This assistance includes a tax credit for private insurance, Medicare or coverage through another government program like the VA or federal employee benefits.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
More Grand Bargains Needed
By Gerald F. Seib
Campaign rhetoric can obscure as much as enlighten, and so it is with the economic debate of 2012.
The real problem isn’t that the recovery from the deep recession of 2007 to 2009 is too slow (though it is) or that the deficit is too large (though it is) or even that unemployment is too high (though everyone agrees it is).
The real problem is that America’s economy simply isn’t the high-growth, jobs-producing machine it once was. As just the latest indication, the International Monetary Fund on Monday lowered its forecast of U.S. and global growth for the next two years.
This is the predicament that ought to be dominating campaign conversations. It’s a problem that predates the current economic mess, and it will persist long after the recovery—unless both parties in Washington find some way to break the policy gridlock that has become a weight slowing the American economic machine.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that, with a new attitude and a sense of urgency in Washington, this is doable. Most sensible people in Washington know exactly what kinds of compromises on the deficit, taxes, trade and entitlement programs are within reach to change the economic trajectory.
What’s needed is simply for both parties to accept that neither is likely to be in full command of the government after the fall election and perhaps for some time to come, and to move on to the compromises needed to end a policy paralysis that is exacting a real economic price.
It would be nice if this reality were getting more attention in the campaign now; far more important is that it be reflected in the tenor of the conversation after the election.
This imperative is well embodied in a new study, titled “The Bargain,” soon to be released by Third Way, a centrist think tank. It lays out a series of seven big policy bargains the two parties could strike to address economic malaise.
First, though, the paper illuminates the bad economic news that lies at the heart of America’s predicament: The U.S. economy is widely projected to grow at only about a 2.3% or 2.4% annual rate for the next couple of decades, even after it has recovered from the recession. “That is a full point less than the previous six decades of growth,” the paper notes.
A percentage point may not sound like much, but the consequences of prolonged slow growth are profound. In just the period between 2017 and 2022, if the economy were to grow at its long-term average of 3.3% rather than 2.3%, it would produce $1 trillion in higher output, $904 billion in greater personal income, 1.1 million more jobs and an annual deficit $261 billion narrower. Average incomes for Americans, the study notes, would be “several thousand dollars higher.”
So, how does the country win back that extra percentage point of annual growth? Washington can’t provide the entire solution, but it certainly can provide a big part of it. That would require not just one “grand bargain” between the two parties—the kind that Democratic President Barack Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner tried to negotiate on the federal budget last year—but a whole series of them.
Obviously, getting there requires each party to give some ground. The Third Way paper cites seven areas of potential bargains. Among them:
Myth #10: Too few doctors
“…we won’t have anywhere near enough doctors to care for the expanded volume of patients that Obamacare will create.”
-Marc Seigel, National Review, 03/30/2012
The new law will give more Americans coverage that will help them afford care, and in turn, there will be more demand for services such as primary care, which is already in short supply. Congress anticipated this problem, however, and increased reimbursement and funding for primary care doctors and other health professionals including physician assistants and nurses. President Obama’s administration recently announced an additional $250 million to boost the supply of primary care providers.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Myth #9: Employers will stop providing coverage
Plan elimination is the first major consequence of PPACA that small-business owners likely feel.
-National Federation of Independent Businesses, 07/2011
Actually, studies by the Congressional Budget Office, the Rand Corporation, and the Urban Institute have shown how employers will continue to have strong incentives to cover their workers. They will continue to compete for the best employees by offering benefits that employees want. Employers and employees will also still have strong tax advantages for employment-based coverage.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Myth #8: Taxpayer-paid abortions
Obamacare contains an “abortion surcharge and a secrecy clause” that forces
“pro-life Americans … to pay for other people’s abortions.”
-Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), 03/15/2012
Actually, the health insurance reform legislation maintains the current law of no federal funding for abortions, except in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the woman is endangered. A federal judge recently wrote “the express language of the [Affordable Care Act] does not provide for taxpayer funded abortion. That is a fact and it is clear on its face.”
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Myth #7: Insurance costs will go up
The health care law has caused health insurance premiums to increase for families struggling to make ends meet.
-Rep. Nan Hayworth (R-NY), 06/28/2012
Actually, the new health care law lowers administrative costs for employers and employees and increases choice and competition in health insurance. A family of four will save as much as $2,300 on their premiums in 2014 compared to what they would have paid without reform, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Premiums for the same plan will be up to 2 percent lower for small businesses and 3 percent lower for large businesses.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Myth #6: Illegal immigrants will get free coverage
The president specifically promised the American people that ‘Obamacare’ would not cover those who are here illegally. He misled all of us.
-Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), 08/15/2011
Actually, the health care law goes out of its way to prevent benefits from going to illegal immigrants. It continues the current ban on coverage for illegal immigrants in Medicaid and extends the ban for all new benefits. Moreover, illegal immigrants won’t be able to buy coverage with their own money through the new public program called an insurance exchange.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Myth #5: Job Killer
This [Obamacare] will be the biggest job-killer ever.
-Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL), 03/26/2012
Actually, In contrast to the “significant job losses” projected by a 2011 GOP report, the law’s impact on jobs is likely to be minimal according to the CBO. The Republican report fails to mention that in many cases workers may be choosing to exit the labor market voluntarily. With new options to qualify for Medicaid or subsidized coverage, the Affordable Care Act allows those working solely for the purpose of keeping their insurance to work less or retire. Although fines imposed by the employer mandate may reduce the number of low-wage jobs, those cuts will be limited and largely offset by potential job increases in health and insurance industries.
In sum, the new law introduces incentives that will push employment numbers in both directions, but the net effect is hardly a doomsday for jobs.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
Myth #4: Trillions added to the deficit
Obamacare adds trillions to our deficits and to our national debt, and pushes those obligations on to coming generations.
-Mitt Romney, 06/28/2012
Actually, the Congressional Budget Office says that the health care law will lower the deficit, by about $124 billion over 10 years. The reason is simply that the health care law has offsetting revenue and cost savings that exceed new spending.
Read more in our new memo debunking the 12 biggest myths about the Affordable Care Act.
